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#877216 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 AM 07.Oct.2016)
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHEASTWARD TO SURF CITY
NORTH CAROLINA. THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO COCOA
BEACH HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SURF CITY TO
DUCK...NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT
NORTH CAROLINA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* COCOA BEACH TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SEBASTIAN INLET TO COCOA BEACH
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND IN THE CAROLINAS
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 80.5W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 947 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 80.5W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 80.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.8N 80.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N 79.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 33.5N 78.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 28.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 80.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA