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| #877261 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:49 PM 07.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 39 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016 ...HURRICANE MATTHEW CAUSES DEVASTATION ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 80.7W ABOUT 40 MI...70 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal warnings have been discontinued south of the Volusia/Brevard county line. The Hurricane Warning from the Volusia/Brevard county line to the Flagler/Volusia county line has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Flagler/Volusia county line to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Volusia/Brevard county line to the Flagler/Volusia county line * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 80.7 West. Matthew is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward toward the north-northeast and then to the northeast is expected on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will continue to move near or over the coast of northeast Florida and Georgia through tonight, and near or over the coast of South Carolina on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane until it begins to move away from the southeastern United States on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A private weather station in Jacksonville recently reported a wind gust of 82 mph (131 km/h). The minimum central pressure recently reported by NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes was 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Florida tonight, and spread northward within the warning area through Saturday. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by Saturday night or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected by Saturday morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Flagler Beach, Florida, to Edisto Beach, South Carolina, including portions of the St. Johns River...6 to 9 ft Volusia/Brevard county line to Flagler Beach, Florida...4 to 6 ft Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Cape Fear, North Carolina... 5 to 7 ft Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida northeast coast, the Georgia coast, the South Carolina coast, and the North Carolina coast from the Volusia/Brevard county line, Florida, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches over the Atlantic coast of the United States from northeast Florida to eastern North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. This rainfall may result in life- threatening flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible across parts of the South Carolina and Georgia coastal plains late this afternoon and tonight. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Avila |
