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| #877348 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 AM 08.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 41 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 ...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MATTHEW LASHING HILTON HEAD ISLAND AND PRITCHARDS ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS... ...STORM SURGE FLOODING OCCURRING IN GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.0N 80.5W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF HILTON HEAD ISLAND SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All tropical cyclone warnings have been discontinued south of Altamaha Sound, Georgia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * North of Altamaha Sound to Surf City A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Cape Lookout A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars, and Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft, near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 80.5 West. Matthew is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue this morning. A turn toward the northeast is expected by this afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move near or over the coast of South Carolina this morning, and be near the coast of southern North Carolina by tonight. Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Although weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, Matthew is expected to remain a hurricane while the center is near the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Hurricane-force wind gusts are now occurring along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina from Tybee Island, Georgia, to Pritchards Island, South Carolina. The minimum central pressure recently reported by Air Force Reserve and NOAA reconnaissance aircraft was 955 mb (28.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area in Georgia and South Carolina this morning, and spread northward elsewhere within the warning area through today. Residents in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson category higher than the winds near the surface. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning area in North Carolina by tonight or Sunday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected later this morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Altamaha Sound, GA, to Edisto Beach, SC...6 to 9 ft Edisto Beach, SC to Cape Fear, NC...5 to 7 ft Cape Fear to Duck, NC, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...2 to 4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Altamaha Sound, Georgia, to Cape Fear, North Carolina. There is the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48 hours from north of Cape Fear to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches near and east of Interstate 95 in South Carolina and North Carolina, with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. Matthew is expected to produce 2 to 6 inches of rain over central South Carolina, western North Carolina, and southeastern Virginia. Additional rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches are expected over eastern Georgia. In all of these areas rainfall may result in life-threatening flooding and flash flooding. TORNADOES: An isolated tornado or two will be possible today along the coast of North Carolina and northern South Carolina. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions of the east coast of Florida during the next few days, and will spread northward along the southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
