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| #877432 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 PM 08.Oct.2016) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with Hurricane Matthew is gradually losing tropical characteristics while it becomes embedded within a mid-latitude trough. The hurricane is accompanied by a very extensive area of intense rains mostly located north of the center. Recent data from an Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the winds are still 65 kt, and these winds are limited to a small area over water east of the center. The low-level circulation is becoming separated from the mid-level circulation due to strong shear. Most of the global models, primarily the GFS and the UKMET, forecast that Matthew will become entangled with a cold front, and the NHC forecast calls for Matthew to weaken and become absorbed within this frontal system within the next couple of days. Fixes from a reconnaissance plane indicate that Matthew is moving toward the east-northeast or 060 degrees at 10 kt while hugging the coast of South Carolina. During the next 12 hours or so, while the Matthew is hugging the US coast and taking on a more extratropical structure, the tropical-storm-force winds are expected to expand and strengthen in the western semicircle and continue to affect portions of the coast within the warning area. Since Matthew is already embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow and the steering pattern is forecast to persist for the next day or two, the NHC forecast moves the cyclone eastward or east- southeastward until it becomes absorbed. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds will shift to the back side of the circulation. These winds will persist over land even after the center begins to move away from the coastline, and have also increased the threat of storm surge in portions of the North Carolina Outer Banks. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 33.8N 78.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 34.5N 76.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 34.5N 74.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 34.0N 71.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 10/1800Z 33.0N 70.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila |
