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| #877474 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:52 PM 08.Oct.2016) TCDAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 44 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1100 PM EDT SAT OCT 08 2016 A combination of satellite imagery, aircraft data, and coastal surface and radar observations indicate that Matthew is undergoing extratropical transition, and there is barely enough convection near the center to keep the system classified as a hurricane. However, SFMR data from an Air Force show hurricane-force winds to the southwest of the center, and based on this and the marginal convection Matthew remains a hurricane for this advisory. The cyclone is likely to become post-tropical in 12 hours or less and become an extratropical frontal low by 24 hours. As this happens though, a band of strong winds forming in the western semicircle near eastern North Carolina and the adjacent waters should keep the intensity near 65 kt for the next 12 hours or so. After that, Matthew should weaken and become absorbed within the frontal system between 48-72 hours. The new intensity forecast is mostly an update of the previous forecast. The initial motion is now 070/12. Matthew is embedded in the mid-latitude westerly flow and this steering pattern is forecast to move the system east-northeastward and then eastward until dissipation. The new forecast track is a little south of the previous track for the first 12 hours and a little north of it after that time. The forecast strength of the band of winds over the eastern North Carolina coastal area requires a northward extension of the hurricane watch. Strong winds in the Tidewater Region of Virginia are being handled by non-tropical wind warnings. KEY MESSAGES: 1. As Matthew's structure changes, the system's strongest winds are shifting to the west side of the circulation. The winds are expected to increase significantly over the coastal areas of eastern North Carolina during the next several hours, and during the next 12 hours there is the possibility of near-hurricane force winds over the North Carolina Outer Banks, as well as the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. There is also an increased threat of storm surge in these areas. Please see the Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic for a depiction of the areas at risk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 34.1N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 34.6N 74.7W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 10/0000Z 34.4N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1200Z 33.8N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0000Z 33.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven |
