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| #877508 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:54 AM 09.Oct.2016) TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 45 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 500 AM EDT SUN OCT 09 2016 ...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AS MATTHEW MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD JUST OFFSHORE OF THE OUTER BANKS... ...RECORD-BREAKING FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...34.9N 75.1W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning from Little River Inlet to south of Cape Fear has been discontinued. The Hurricane Warning from Cape Fear to Surf City has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Surf City to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Cape Fear to Duck * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 6 to 12 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Matthew was located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near latitude 34.9 North, longitude 75.1 West. Matthew is moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion toward the east-northeast or east is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew should pass just south of the coast of North Carolina this morning, and then move well east of the North Carolina coast by this afternoon. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km), mainly to the southwest of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km). A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust to 79 mph (127 km/h) were recently measured by a National Ocean Service instrument at Duck, North Carolina. A wind gust of 68 mph (109 km/h) was reported at Elizabeth City, North Carolina, and a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported at the Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station near Morehead City, North Carolina. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue over the warning area this morning and then subside by this afternoon. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area this morning. STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge, the tide, and large and destructive waves will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds...3 to 5 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur well in advance of and well away from the track of the center. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. There is a danger of life-threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the coast from Surf City to Duck, North Carolina, including portions of the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or warning currently under development by the National Weather Service and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is available at hurricanes.gov. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across southeast Virginia and extreme eastern North Carolina through this morning. Storm total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with isolated amounts up to 20 inches, continues to result in life threatening flooding and flash flooding across the region. SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect much of the coast of the southeastern United States through early next week. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
