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| #877511 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:00 AM 09.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST SUN OCT 09 2016 Without any recent microwave data, it has been difficult to locate Nicole`s center. However, the center is fully embedded beneath the deep convection, and Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support holding the maximum winds at 45 kt. Northerly shear affecting the cyclone has decreased a little since this time yesterday and is now analyzed to be about 35 kt. The magnitude of the shear should continue to gradually decrease, reaching a minimum in about 2 to 3 days. After that time, the shear could once again increase when Nicole gets closer to the mid-latitude westerlies. Due to the ebbs and flows of the shear, the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength for the next 36 hours and then indicates gradual strengthening from day 2 through day 5. This forecast shows the same general trend indicated in the previous advisory. Nicole has been drifting southward but now appears to be almost stationary as it becomes collocated with a nearby mid-level low pressure area. Little motion is expected for the next day or so, but Nicole should begin to move slowly northward after 24 hours when it is picked up by two shortwave troughs moving off the east coast of the United States. A northeastward acceleration is expected by the end of the forecast period once Nicole becomes established within mid-latitude westerly flow. The ECMWF model remains a western outlier since it shows a little more interaction between Nicole and Matthew`s remnant mid-level circulation. However, the updated NHC track forecast is close to the previous forecast and remains between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 24.3N 65.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 24.3N 65.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 24.9N 65.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 25.9N 65.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 26.9N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 28.4N 66.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 31.0N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 35.0N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
