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| #877746 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 11.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST TUE OCT 11 2016 Nicole`s cloud pattern has improved this morning, with several bands of convection wrapping around the center. Recent microwave imagery has revealed a well-defined low-level eye feature and there are hints of a ragged banding eye forming in last few visible satellite pictures. Based on the increase in organization the initial intensity is increased to 55 kt, which is in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Nicole, and the data they collect should provide a better estimate of the cyclone intensity and size this afternoon. The shear that has been plaguing Nicole during the past several days has weakened, and is expected to remain low during the next day or so. This, along with warm waters along the forecast track, should allow for strengthening during the 36 to 48 hours, and Nicole is predicted to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Later in the forecast period, some weakening is predicted due to cooler waters and increasing shear, but Nicole is expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic. The new NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous advisory, and is closest to the SHIPS and GFDL model guidance. The tropical storm is moving north-northwestward at about 4 kt. Nicole is forecast to turn northward into a break in the subtropical ridge that is being caused by a mid-latitude trough that is currently passing to the north of Bermuda. As Nicole approaches Bermuda, it will reach the mid-latitude westerly flow, which should cause a turn toward the northeast and some increase in forward speed. The track guidance has come into much better agreement on this scenario since yesterday, and the updated NHC track forecast is near the middle of the now tightly clustered guidance. A Hurricane Warning will likely be required for Bermuda this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 11/1500Z 27.3N 65.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 12/0000Z 27.7N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 12/1200Z 28.6N 66.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 13/0000Z 30.2N 66.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 13/1200Z 32.2N 65.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 14/1200Z 36.8N 60.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 15/1200Z 40.5N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 16/1200Z 41.8N 53.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Brown |
