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| #877822 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 12.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 Nicole`s cloud pattern on satellite continues to be very impressive with a large eye surrounded by deep convection and a good upper- level outflow in all quadrants. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB remain 4.5/77 kt, but objective numbers from UW-CIMMS are up to 5.7 on the Dvorak scale. The initial intensity is then set to 85 kt, based on a blend of these estimates. An Air Force plane will be in the eye of Nicole around 1200 UTC this morning, and will provide an intensity update. Environmental conditions are conducive for some additional strengthening in the next day or so, and Nicole is forecast to be at its peak in intensity while it moves near Bermuda. After 36 hours, the shear is forecast to increase significantly resulting in some weakening. Nicole should then become a post-tropical cyclone by 96 hours. Most of the global models indicate that the post-tropical cyclone will maintain winds of near hurricane strength, and so does the NHC forecast. Satellite fixes indicate that Nicole is moving toward the north- northwest or 340 degrees at 6 kt. The steering pattern has not changed, and in the next 12 hours or so, the hurricane will become embedded in the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. This pattern should force Nicole to turn to the north-northeast and then east with a gradual increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track is very similar to the previous one primarily during the next 24 to 36 hours, bringing the core of Nicole very near or over Bermuda. The forecast track is in the middle of the guidance envelope and is basically on top of the multi-model consensus TVCN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 27.9N 67.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 28.9N 67.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 30.6N 66.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 32.6N 64.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 35.0N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 39.0N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 40.0N 51.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/0600Z 40.0N 50.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Avila |
