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| #877845 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 12.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 The satellite presentation of the hurricane has changed very little during the past 6 to 12 hours. Nicole remains a very symmetric hurricane with a distinct 30 nmi wide eye. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft flew one alpha pattern through the storm this morning and recorded peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 91 kt, SFMR winds of 79 kt, and a minimum pressure of 969 mb. Since the aircraft only sampled a small portion of the circulation, the initial intensity is set 85 kt, which is a blend of the aircraft data and the most recent subjective Dvorak satellite estimates. The aircraft data indicate that Nicole has grown in size since yesterday, and the initial and forecast wind radii have been adjusted accordingly. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for some strengthening while Nicole approaches Bermuda during the next day or so. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler sea surface temperatures are expected to induce weakening. Nicole is forecast to interact with a frontal boundary in about 72 hours, but it is not clear as to whether Nicole will complete its transformation into an extratropical low by days 4 and 5. For now, the NHC forecast maintains persistence with the previous advisories and predicts Nicole to lose tropical characteristics by 96 h but remain an intense storm system over the north Atlantic. The aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the hurricane has turned northward, and Nicole should stay on this heading with some increase in forward speed today. The hurricane will become embedded within the mid-latitude flow on Thursday, which should steer Nicole northeastward with an additional increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast is once again very close to the previous advisory, and shows the core of Nicole passing near or over Bermuda between 24 and 36 hours. Later in the period, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and meander over the north Atlantic as it interacts with a large cut-off low well to the southeast of Atlantic Canada. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 28.4N 66.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 29.5N 66.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 31.5N 65.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 33.7N 63.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 35.8N 59.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 39.1N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 39.2N 50.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 17/1200Z 39.2N 50.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown |
