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| #877846 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:00 AM 12.Oct.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST WED OCT 12 2016 ...NICOLE TURNS NORTHWARD... ...CORE OF THE HURRICANE EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 66.9W ABOUT 295 MI...480 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 66.9 West. Nicole is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northward motion with some increase in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the north-northeast is forecast tonight, followed by a northeast turn on Thursday with an additional increase in forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Nicole will pass near or over Bermuda on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and Nicole could be near major hurricane strength when it approaches Bermuda. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin this evening or tonight. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by the Bermuda Weather Service. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown |
