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| #877901 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:16 PM 12.Oct.2016) TCPAT5 BULLETIN HURRICANE NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 36 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 PM AST WED OCT 12 2016 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR NICOLE HEADING FOR BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.1N 66.4W ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Nicole was located near latitude 30.1 North, longitude 66.4 West. Nicole is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). An increase in forward speed is expected Thursday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and a further increase in forward speed expected by Thursday night. On the forecast track, the core of Nicole will pass over or near Bermuda on Thursday. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Nicole is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected overnight, and Nicole is forecast to be at major hurricane strength when it moves near Bermuda. Some weakening is expected to begin by late Tuesday. Nicole has a large area of hurricane-force winds that extend outward up to 65 miles (100 km) from the center. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The latest estimated minimum central pressure from the aircraft is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to begin on Bermuda Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin soon. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 6 to 8 feet above normal tide levels in Bermuda. The surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Nicole is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches over Bermuda through Thursday. SURF: Swells associated with Nicole will affect Bermuda during the next few days, and will spread northward along the United States east coast from the Carolinas northward through the next few days. These swells will create dangerous surf conditions and rip currents. Please refer to products being issued by your local weather office for more information. TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Bermuda tonight and early Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan |
