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| #877927 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 13.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016 Nicole continues to have an impressive satellite presentation with a warm, well-defined eye and strong eyewall convection. The last Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a 700-mb wind of 118 kt and a peak SFMR wind of 114 kt. These values are close to the previous mission, and based on these data, the initial intensity is kept at 115 kt for this advisory. The initial motion estimate is 025/13. All of the guidance show the core of Nicole very close to Bermuda later today, and only a small westward adjustment was made to the first part of the forecast. Nicole is beginning to accelerate generally northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough moving across the northern United States. However, this trough is forecast to move away from Nicole in a few days, leaving the cyclone meandering over the North Atlantic well southeast of Newfoundland. A ridge is then forecast to build over the far northeastern Atlantic east of Nicole, which should help the system resume a slow northeastward motion by day 5. The new forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is very close to the multi-model consensus. Southwesterly shear is forecast by all of the global models to increase rapidly today. In combination with a slow decrease in SSTs, these factors will likely cause Nicole to lose strength soon. The steady weakening trend is forecast to level off in about 36 hours as baroclinic forcing from a mid-latitude shortwave trough should help maintain Nicole as a strong cyclone through rest of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the previous forecast, the intensity consensus and the global model fields beyond 48 hours. While no changes were made to the timing of Nicole becoming post-tropical, there is considerable uncertainty on exactly what structure Nicole will have in a few days time. Regardless, all models forecast Nicole to be a large and powerful cyclone for the next several days. The forecast at days 3 through 5 has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 31.1N 65.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 32.7N 64.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 34.8N 61.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 36.4N 57.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 37.7N 53.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 39.0N 49.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 17/0600Z 38.5N 49.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 18/0600Z 40.5N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Blake/Avila |
