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| #877954 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:03 AM 13.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST THU OCT 13 2016 Southwesterly shear is beginning to affect Nicole. Microwave imagery and Bermuda radar indicate that the eye has lost some definition and become open to the south. There is also a significant southwest to northeast tilt between the low-level center as noted between the radar and satellite presentations of the eye, and the Air Force center fix that was located near the extreme western part of the eye seen in satellite imagery. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has not yet sampled the eastern portion of the eyewall where the strongest winds were reported overnight, however, they have reported a minimum pressure 961 mb, which is up several millibars since the previous fix. Based on the most recent aircraft data and satellite intensity estimates, the initial wind speed has been set at 105 kt for this advisory. Although the area of strongest winds in the eastern eyewall are expected to remain offshore of Bermuda, sustained hurricane-force winds have been reported on the island during the past couple of hours. The official observing site at the airport has measured sustained winds of 67 kt with a gust to 90 kt within the past hour. Increasingly southwesterly shear and slightly lower sea surface temperatures along the forecast track of Nicole should cause a gradual decrease in intensity during the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, baroclinic forcing is forecast by the global models to keep Nicole an intense low pressure area over the north Atlantic through early next week. The days 3-5 intensity forecast is in agreement with guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Nicole has turned northeastward as expected. The hurricane will move northeastward with some acceleration in forward speed as it becomes embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The trough is forecast to bypass Nicole in a couple of days, which is expected to cause the cyclone to slow down and meander well southeast of Newfoundland late in the forecast period. The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC is again near the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 32.3N 64.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 33.8N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 35.5N 58.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 37.0N 54.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 38.3N 51.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 16/1200Z 39.0N 48.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 17/1200Z 39.0N 47.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 18/1200Z 41.0N 44.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Brown |
