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| #878044 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:48 AM 14.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 42 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 Nicole continues to become less organized in satellite imagery, with the main convective area now well removed from the center over the northern semicircle and only shallow convection remaining near the center. The latest subjective intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are 77 and 55 kt respectively, and the latest CIMSS SATCON estimate is 68 kt. Based on these data and the decay of the cloud pattern, the initial intensity is reduced to 70 kt. The initial motion is 060/16. Nicole is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies to the southeast of a deep-layer trough moving eastward through southeastern Canada. The dynamical models forecast the trough to bypass Nicole to the north after 24 hours or so, which will weaken the steering flow and reduce Nicole`s forward speed during the 24-72 hour period. Subsequently, a new mid- latitude trough moving through southeastern Canada should steer Nicole northeastward at a faster forward speed. The guidance is tightly clustered through 48-72 hours, and this part of the forecast track is an update of the previous track. Beyond that time, the guidance has shifted northward, and the new forecast track is also nudged northward. The dynamical models are in good agreement that Nicole should interact with the mid-latitude trough starting in the next 12-24 hours, with the models forecasting a central pressure below 950 mb in about 36 hours. As this occurs, the cyclone is expected to develop into a post-tropical cyclone with the warm core secluded inside an encircling cooler air mass. The guidance suggests that Nicole will not fully develop frontal features during the forecast period, so the new intensity forecast calls for the system to remain a powerful post-tropical cyclone through 120 hours. The post-tropical portion of Nicole`s intensity and wind radii forecasts have been modified based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Note that swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 35.8N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 36.9N 55.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 38.1N 51.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/0000Z 38.5N 49.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 16/1200Z 38.7N 48.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 17/1200Z 40.0N 46.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 18/1200Z 44.5N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 19/1200Z 51.0N 37.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven |
