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| #878136 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 AM 15.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST SAT OCT 15 2016 Nicole has intensified since the last advisory, likely due to baroclinic influences from a nearby upper-level trough. Just-received ASCAT-B data shows 70-75 kt winds to the southwest of the center, and a drifting buoy south of the center reported a pressure 966.6 mb at 1000 UTC, suggesting a falling central pressure. Based on these data, the intensity is increased to 75 kt. It should be noted that the cloud pattern has some characteristics of a subtropical cyclone due to the cyclone`s interaction with the upper-level trough. The GFS and the ECMWF continue to forecast organized central convection for the next 48 hours or so, indicating that Nicole is likely to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics despite cooler air entraining into the circulation. After that time, the cyclone should move over sea surface temperatures of 16 deg C or less that should cause the central convection to dissipate. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Nicole to become post-tropical by 72 hours and then fully extratropical by 96 hours. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward for the first 12 hours based on the current intensity, and after that it is an update of the previous forecast. Overall, the forecast lies near the upper end of the intensity guidance. Nicole appears to be slowing its forward motion, and the motion estimate is now 075/11. A slow easterly motion is expected during the next 36 hours or so while the cyclone is an area of weaker flow in the mid-latitude westerlies. After that time, a large mid-latitude trough moving into eastern Canada should steer the cyclone north-northeastward with an increase in forward speed. The new forecast track is again similar to the previous track and lies near the various consensus models. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii. Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 39.0N 50.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 39.3N 48.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 39.4N 47.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 39.8N 45.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 41.1N 44.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 47.5N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 19/1200Z 56.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 20/1200Z 64.5N 32.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven |
