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| #878210 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 16.Oct.2016) TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 49 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST SUN OCT 16 2016 The satellite presentation has changed very little during the past several hours. The pattern consists of a convective band wrapping around the center or an eye-like feature. The initial intensity is kept at 75 kt. There is nothing new to report except that Nicole is a resilient cyclone, and will probably continue as a hurricane for the next 24 to 36 hours despite the shear and the cold waters. Both the GFS and the ECMWF models are showing signs that by 48 hours, Nicole will no longer have tropical characteristic, and by 72 hours, it will be absorbed by a much large extratropical cyclone. The NHC forecast follows the solutions of these two models. Nicole is meandering eastward or 090 degrees at 5 kt. Since the hurricane is cut off from the faster mid-latitude flow to its north, little motion is anticipated during the next 24 hours. After that time, an approaching trough should cause Nicole to accelerate and turn more to the northeast and north-northeast until it become absorbed by a much larger extratropical cyclone in about 3 days or sooner. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was used for the forecast wind radii. Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 39.2N 47.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 39.3N 46.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 17/0600Z 40.2N 45.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/1800Z 42.5N 43.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 18/0600Z 46.5N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 19/0600Z 56.6N 36.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 20/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE $$ Forecaster Avila |
