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| #8792 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 16.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 HURRICANE JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 1500Z THU SEP 16 2004 AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. AT 11 AM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA TO ISLA SAONA. AT 11 AM AST...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS TO WEST OF PUERTO PLATA...AND FROM ISLA SAONA TO SANTO DOMINGO. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM WEST OF PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO MONTE CRISTO AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA WESTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 68.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 68.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.3N 70.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.2N 71.7W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 21.1N 73.4W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 22.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 23.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 26.5N 78.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 30.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
