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| #8793 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:37 AM 16.Sep.2004) TCMAT4 HURRICANE IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 57 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004 1500Z THU SEP 16 2004 AT 10 CDT...1500Z...THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. ALL COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED ELSEWHERE. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 87.5W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 65NE 125SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT.......100NE 250SE 125SW 75NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 350SE 250SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 87.5W AT 16/1500Z...INLAND AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 87.7W...INLAND FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 33.6N 86.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.2N 85.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 36.5N 84.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 37.0N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.0N 81.0W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 87.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN |
