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| #8798 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 AM 16.Sep.2004) TCDAT4 HURRICANE IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 57 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 IVAN IS MOVING 010/12 ACROSS WESTERN ALABAMA. WHILE IT IS WEAKENING...A RECENT OBSERVATION FROM DEMOPOLIS ALABAMA INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 65 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. IVAN SHOULD WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT GETS FARTHER INLAND...BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM THIS AFTERNOON AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 24 HR. THEY SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN ABOUT 72 HR...ALTHOUGH SOME REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL LIKELY PERSIST THEREAFTER. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT THAT IVAN WILL CURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND GRADUALLY DECELERATE THROUGH 72 HR. BASED ON THIS...THE FORECAST TRACK MOVES THE CENTER A LITTLE FARTHER EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE THE REMAINS OF IVAN WILL GO AFTER 72 HR. STORM SURGE FLOODING ALONG THE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH TODAY...AND THE THREAT OF HIGH WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS IVAN WEAKENS. HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE REMAINS A MAJOR RAINFALL THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL TODAY. THERE IS ALSO A CONTINUED TORNADO THREAT ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/1500Z 32.0N 87.5W 65 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 17/0000Z 33.6N 86.9W 50 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 17/1200Z 35.2N 85.7W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 18/0000Z 36.5N 84.0W 25 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 18/1200Z 37.0N 82.5W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 19/1200Z 37.0N 81.0W 20 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 96HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED |
