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| #880269 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:45 AM 22.Nov.2016) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 1000 AM EST TUE NOV 22 2016 Otto is close to becoming a hurricane. Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern has become better organized, with a central dense overcast and broad band feature over the western semicircle evident. The past Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight recorded maximum flight-level winds of 65 kt, with SFMR winds of about 60 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is increased to 60 kt for this advisory. Weak-to-moderate southeasterly shear is expected near Otto for the next couple of days while the tropical cyclone moves over warm water. These conditions should allow Otto to continue to strengthen, and almost all of the guidance has Otto as a hurricane before making a central American landfall. The official intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, and lies between the intensity consensus and the HWRF model. Land interaction will cause weakening after landfall, but a stronger Otto is less likely to dissipate as quickly over the eastern Pacific. Most of the guidance now keeps the storm going throughout the period, so the remnant low designation has been changed to a tropical cyclone status over the eastern Pacific. Otto really isn`t moving much, with recon fixes showing little net motion during the morning hours. A mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow, which should cause Otto to move slowly westward. As the ridge builds, the forecast speed should increase, especially as the cyclone moves across the eastern Pacific. The guidance continues to trend southward, and the official forecast is shifted in that direction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 10.4N 79.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 10.4N 79.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 10.6N 80.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 10.8N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 10.8N 82.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 10.5N 86.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 10.0N 90.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 9.5N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake |
