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| #880469 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:57 PM 24.Nov.2016) TCDAT1 HURRICANE OTTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162016 400 PM EST THU NOV 24 2016 Satellite imagery and radar data from Nicaragua indicate that Hurricane Otto made landfall at approximately 1800 UTC today along the extreme southern coast of Nicaragua, just north of the town of San Juan de Nicaragua. The peak intensity at the time of landfall was estimated to be at least 95 kt and the central pressure was estimated at 975 mb. This makes Otto the southernmost landfalling hurricane in Central America on record. The initial motion estimate is 270/10 kt. Otto is located inland over extreme southern Nicaragua, just north of the border with Costa Rica. Easterly steering flow on the south side of a deep-layer ridge located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Mexico is expected to keep Otto or its remnants moving in a westward to west-southwestward direction throughout the forecast period. The global and regional models are in good agreement on this track scenario, and only a slight northward adjustment was made to the previous forecast track, mainly due to the more northward initial position of Otto. Otto is forecast to weaken rapidly while the hurricane moves farther inland over the rough terrain of southern Nicaragua and northern Costa Rica tonight. Otto is expected to weaken to a tropical storm by the time it emerges over the eastern North Pacific in about 12 h, and maintain that intensity during the 24-96 hour period. The ECMWF, UKMET, and Canadian models continue to weaken Otto throughout the forecast period, especially after 48 hours when the cyclone is forecast to interact with a dry Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind event. Erosion of the inner-core convection and wind field is expected from this negative interaction, resulting in dissipation of Otto by 48-72 h. In contrast, the GFS model keeps the gap-wind event away from Otto and strengthens the cyclone back to hurricane status by 48 h and beyond. For now, the NHC official intensity forecast will remain similar to the previous advisory, and more closely follows the Decay-SHIPS intensity model, which is well below all of the other intensity forecast models. The primary threat from Otto is going to be torrential rainfall, which will result in dangerous flooding and mudslides. Reports of mudslides across northern Costa Rica have already been received from amateur radio operators in that area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 11.0N 84.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 12H 25/0600Z 10.7N 86.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 25/1800Z 10.2N 88.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 9.8N 91.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 9.5N 93.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 9.4N 100.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 10.5N 103.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 12.1N 105.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart |
