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| #8855 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:59 PM 16.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 2100Z THU SEP 16 2004 AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING AND WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THESE HAVE BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING...WHICH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 69.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 69.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.5N 70.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.4N 72.3W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.4N 73.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 25.0N 77.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 28.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 32.0N 80.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 69.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN |
