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| #8916 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 16.Sep.2004) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT THU SEP 16 2004 THE CENTER HAS BEEN MAINLY OVER LAND SINCE EARLIER TODAY...HOWEVER RECENTLY A PORTION OF THE CORE HAS MOVED OVER A VERY SMALL AREA OF WATER...THE BAHIA DE SAMANA ON THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE STRENGTH OF THE RING OF CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS BEING KEPT JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH ON THIS ADVISORY SINCE MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION IS STILL OVER LAND. IF THE CENTER MOVES FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL BE ABLE TO GET TO THE CENTER AND PROVIDE A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE ACTUAL STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER LATE IN THE PERIOD THE GFS 200 MB WIND FORECAST SUGGESTS INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER JEANNE...ASSUMING THAT IT MORE OR LESS FOLLOWS OUR FORECAST TRACK. THIS WOULD TEND TO INHIBIT STRENGTHENING AT DAYS 4 AND 5. IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF OUR TRACK...IT COULD INTENSIFY FURTHER SINCE IT WOULD LIKELY BE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER SHEAR. THE MOTION HAS BEEN ERRATIC SINCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A NORTHWESTWARD WOBBLE NOTED SEVERAL HOURS AGO THAT BROUGHT THE CENTER TO THE NORTH COAST OF HISPANIOLA. NOW THE MOTION APPEARS TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...ABOUT 295/5. A WEAK RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM WILL BE THE MAIN STEERING FACTOR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT BECOMES LESS CERTAIN. AFTER JEANNE MOVES INTO THE BAHAMAS...THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF IVAN IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE...AND INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. THE GLOBAL MODELS BUILD A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY 5 DAYS. THIS MAKES IT UNLIKELY THAT JEANNE WILL BE ABLE TO VEER OUT TO SEA...AND IN FACT IT MAY BE FORCED TO TURN MORE WESTWARD BY THAT TIME. IT IS MUCH TOO EARLY TO TALK ABOUT WHAT PORTION OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST MAY BE THREATENED. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/0300Z 19.4N 69.7W 60 KT 12HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 70.8W 60 KT 24HR VT 18/0000Z 21.1N 72.4W 65 KT 36HR VT 18/1200Z 22.3N 73.7W 70 KT 48HR VT 19/0000Z 23.6N 74.9W 75 KT 72HR VT 20/0000Z 26.5N 76.9W 80 KT 96HR VT 21/0000Z 29.5N 79.0W 85 KT 120HR VT 22/0000Z 32.0N 81.0W 85 KT |
