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| #892584 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 PM 18.Jun.2017) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022017 1100 PM AST Sun Jun 18 2017 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS BY MONDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...7.9N 52.4W ABOUT 630 MI...1015 KM ESE OF TRINIDAD ABOUT 695 MI...1120 KM ESE OF GRENADA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines * Trinidad * Tobago * Grenada A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 7.9 North, longitude 52.4 West. A fast motion toward the west-northwest is expected for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move through the Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and the disturbance is forecast to be a tropical storm when it moves through the Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday. Thunderstorm activity associated with the disturbance continues to become better organized, and additional development is likely during the next day or two. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), mainly northwest through northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area overnight Monday and Tuesday morning, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the Windward Islands Monday night and Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
