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| #892901 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 21.Jun.2017) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 400 AM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 Cindy does not look much like a tropical cyclone on satellite images this morning. The deep convection is well-removed to the north and northeast of an exposed low-level center, and there is a rather linear north-south band of convection several hundred miles east of the center. Water vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low is located a couple of hundred miles to the northwest of Cindy`s center, suggesting that the system has at least some subtropical characteristics. The current intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory, although surface observations and a recent ASCAT overpass suggest that this may be generous. Global model forecasts indicate significant shear, with some mid-level dry air wrapping around the circulation, over the next day or so. These factors, along with the current lack of convection near the center, should result in some weakening of the system prior to landfall, perhaps more so than indicated in the NHC forecast. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate the cyclone soon, to confirm the intensity and wind field. The initial motion estimate remains northwestward, or 310/7 kt. Cindy is expected to turn northward and move through a break in the mid-level subtropical ridge along the northwest Gulf of Mexico coast. Later in the forecast period Cindy, or its remnant, should accelerate northeastward in the westerlies over the eastern United States. The official track forecast is mainly a blend of the ECMWF and GFS and also leans toward the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus prediction. The primary hazard from Cindy continues to be very heavy rainfall over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your local National Weather Service office and the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/0900Z 27.3N 91.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/1800Z 28.0N 92.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 22/0600Z 29.3N 93.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 22/1800Z 30.9N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 23/0600Z 33.2N 92.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 72H 24/0600Z 36.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch |
