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| #893098 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:58 PM 21.Jun.2017) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cindy Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017 1000 PM CDT Wed Jun 21 2017 ...HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.6N 93.4W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM WSW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued east of Grand Isle, Louisiana. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Luis Pass Texas to Grand Isle A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the central Texas coast to the western Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cindy was located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 93.4 West. Cindy is moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north should occur by Thursday morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Cindy will move inland near the Louisiana-Texas border early Thursday, then move across western and northern Louisiana and into southeastern Arkansas Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before landfall, with weakening occurring thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent observations from oil rigs near the center is 992 mb (29.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Cindy is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 9 inches with isolated maximum amounts up to 15 inches over southeastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and western portions of the Florida Panhandle through Thursday night. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash flooding in these areas. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches can be expected farther west across western Louisiana and eastern Texas through Thursday night. Rainfall should spread northeastward across Arkansas and into portions of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys through Friday, with total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts possible. WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread westward and northward through the Tropical Storm Warning area through Thursday. STORM SURGE: Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is expected along the coast in portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area. Inundation of 1 to 3 feet above ground level is also possible elsewhere along the coast from southeastern Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle in areas of strong onshore winds. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight from the far western Florida Panhandle across southwestern Alabama, southern Mississippi, and southern Louisiana. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
