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| #894687 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:33 AM 07.Jul.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Four Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042017 1100 AM AST Fri Jul 07 2017 The depression consists of a possible circulation center embedded within a very small area of intermittent convection. The areal coverage of the convection has been gradually decreasing since yesterday, and the cloud pattern is not showing much organization at this time. NHC is keeping an initial intensity of 25 kt, and these winds are only occurring in a few remaining squalls. Although the shear is currently low, the depression is moving into a relatively low-moisture environment, and this factor in combination with the fast motion of the cyclone will probably result in weakening. The depression is forecast to become a remnant low or degenerate into a open wave tonight. The depression or its remnants will continue to move toward the west-northwest at about 18 kt embedded within the strong July trade winds. This is the solution of the few models which maintain a distinct perturbation in the flow for a few more days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 15.6N 50.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 16.5N 53.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1200Z 17.8N 57.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 19.2N 60.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 21.0N 63.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 23.5N 69.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
