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| #8964 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:36 AM 17.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 0900Z FRI SEP 17 2004 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS HAITI EASTWARD TO SANTO DOMINGO. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 70.1W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 70.1W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 69.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 20.0N 70.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.3N 72.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 23.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 25.0N 75.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 60SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 27.0N 76.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 28.5N 77.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 29.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 70.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z FORECASTER AVILA |
