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| #8967 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:38 AM 17.Sep.2004) TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122004 0900Z FRI SEP 17 2004 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 35.3W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 35.3W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 34.8W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.8N 36.8W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 75SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 12.2N 38.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.8N 40.6W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 13.7N 42.2W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. 34 KT...115NE 115SE 115SW 115NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.2N 44.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 130SW 130NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 19.3N 46.3W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 23.0N 47.0W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 35.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z FORECASTER JARVINEN |
