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| #901780 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:47 AM 07.Sep.2017) TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2017 Katia has not changed appreciably during the past several hours with a small central dense overcast and a curved banding feature in the northeastern quadrant. Satellite estimates are about the same as earlier, so the initial wind speed will stay at 70 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the hurricane in a few hours to get a better estimate of the current intensity. Katia is forecast to be over very warm waters with decreasing shear for the next 24-36 hours. Thus strengthening is expected as long as the center remains offshore. It is still puzzling why most of the guidance don`t intensify this much, but since the global models continue to show significant deepening, the official forecast will stay on the high side of the guidance. The hurricane is essentially stationary, waiting for a ridge to build over the northwestern Gulf to steer Katia southwestward at a faster pace. Most of the guidance are in agreement on this track, although the UKMET is a notable outlier showing more of a westward motion. The only significant change from the previous advisory is to speed up the track of Katia as it approaches the coast. Given the latest track forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the previous Hurricane Watch area. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 21.5N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 21.5N 94.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 21.2N 95.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 20.8N 95.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 20.2N 97.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 72H 10/0600Z 19.5N 99.0W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake |
