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| #901924 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:44 AM 08.Sep.2017) TCDAT3 Hurricane Katia Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 08 2017 Enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery and a GPM microwave composite image indicate improved banding over the western portion of the circulation and the earlier ragged eye presentation has become much more distinct. Subsequently, Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have increased along with the Objective ADT T-number, and the initial intensity is bumped up to 80 kt. Further strengthening is possible, and Katia could be near major hurricane intensity prior to landfall Saturday morning. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Katia is forecast to dissipate over the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre mountains after the 48 hour period. The initial motion estimate is west-southwestward, or 250/3 kt. A continued slow west-southwestward motion under the influence of a mid-latitude high extending east from Texas is forecast until the cyclone makes landfall and quickly dissipates. The official forecast has changed little from the previous one, and is based primarily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus multi-model. In addition to the hurricane-force winds, very heavy rains associated with Katia are expected to affect eastern Mexico. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 21.3N 95.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 21.0N 96.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 20.3N 97.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 36H 09/1800Z 19.3N 98.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts |
