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| #903144 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:56 PM 14.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Convection associated with an area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has become much better organized during the past 12 hours, with an increase in banding over the western portion of the circulation. A Dvorak classification of 2.0 from TAFB suggests that the intensity is around 30 kt. The system is currently embedded within an area of light to moderate easterly shear. This should not prevent the system from gradually strengthening while it moves over warm water during the next couple of days. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause an increase in southwesterly shear, which could become quite strong by days 4 and 5. As a result, weakening is expected late in the forest period. The NHC intensity forecast is between the higher statistical guidance and the lower dynamical models. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/19 kt. A high pressure ridge currently over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to weaken as the aforementioned trough develops over the central Atlantic by early next week. This should cause a significant reduction in the forward speed of the depression over the weekend. There is some spread in the track guidance later in the period, with the GFS taking a stronger cyclone more northward, while the EC takes a weaker system more westward. The NHC track is between these solutions and is close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 10.7N 25.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 11.2N 27.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 11.5N 29.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 11.5N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 11.5N 31.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 11.8N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 12.8N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 14.4N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown |
