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| #903169 (Received by flhurricane at: 5:08 AM 15.Sep.2017) TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 Jose is showing signs of becoming better organized. The low-level center is embedded well within a growing central dense overcast (CDO). Despite the improved appearance of Jose, the Dvorak classifications are largely unchanged since 6 hours ago, so the intensity has been held at 60 kt. There has been no change in any of the intensity guidance, so I see no reason to substantially change the intensity forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, and continues to show Jose regaining hurricane status later today. Beginning around 72 h, an increase in shear should bring an end to intensification, and will probably cause Jose to weaken. Once again, some of the global models suggest that Jose will remain a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that extratropical transition could begin around that time. If that happens, baroclinic forcing could help maintain the intensity of Jose, even as the shear increases. Because the low-level circulation center of Jose is hidden beneath the CDO, the initial position and heading are fairly uncertain. My best estimate of the current motion is 290/7 kt. Despite the initial motion uncertainty, the global models are coming into better agreement on the track of Jose. The UKMET is now more in line with the other models in keeping the center of Jose offshore of the U.S. That said, the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs show a farther west track, so the official track forecast has been shifted about 30 n mi in that direction. My new forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus, and now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 25.9N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 26.4N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 27.4N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 28.3N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 29.4N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 32.2N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 35.0N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 38.0N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
