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| #903265 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:53 PM 15.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The overall organization of the tropical depression has changed little since this afternoon. The center remains exposed to the north and northwest of the deep convection, but there has been a slight increase in banding over the southern semicircle within the past hour or two. The initial intensity remains 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak data T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB. The depression is forecast to remain within an area of moderate to strong northwesterly shear during the next 24 to 36 hours while it moves over warm water. Therefore, only slight strengthening is indicated over the weekend. After that time, increasing westerly shear is forecast to weaken the cyclone, and it is expected to become a remnant low by the end of the forecast period. The depression has turned westward since the previous advisory, and the initial motion estimate is 280/9 kt. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. The cyclone should move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a narrow ridge over the eastern Atlantic through Sunday. The global models indicate that the ridge will weaken early next week as a large deep-layer trough forms over the east-central Atlantic. This is expected to result in a slightly more poleward track later in the period. The updated NHC forecast is near the middle of the guidance through 48 hours, but leans toward the left side of the envelope later in the period since the typically reliable ECMWF and HFIP corrected consensus models are along the southern edge envelope at 72 h and beyond. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 12.8N 30.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 12.8N 31.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 12.9N 33.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 13.0N 34.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 13.3N 35.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 15.0N 39.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 17.2N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 21/0000Z 19.0N 47.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown |
