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| #903389 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:59 PM 16.Sep.2017) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Maria Advisory Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 ...MARIA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES... ...NEW HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.5N 53.7W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Netherlands has issued a Hurricane Watch for Saba and St. Eustatius. The Meteorological Service of Curacao has issued a Hurricane Watch for St. Maarten. The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Hurricane Watch for Anguilla. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Guadeloupe * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Anguilla A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * St. Lucia * Martinique * Dominica * Barbados * St. Vincent and the Grenadines A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles and the British and U. S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of this system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches and Warnings will likely be issued early Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Maria was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 53.7 West. Maria is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the west-northwest and a slower forward speed are expected during next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Maria will be near the Leeward Islands Monday or Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Maria is forecast to be a hurricane when it approaches the Leeward Islands. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area by Monday night or Tuesday, with tropical storm conditions possible on Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch area on Monday. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane watch area. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 20 inches across the central and southern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. Maria is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in the northern Leeward Islands through Tuesday night. This rainfall could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are expected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles by Sunday night. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven |
