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| #903636 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:37 PM 18.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Lee Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Mon Sep 18 2017 The convective burst that occurred near the center of Lee this morning has dissipated leaving only a low-level cloud swirl. The initial intensity of the system is held at 30 kt, in agreement with the Dvorak CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The shear over Lee is estimated to be close to 40 kt according to the SHIPS model, and these very hostile winds and dry air should cause Lee to weaken and degenerate into a remnant low within the next 12 to 24 hours. The GFS and ECMWF suggest that whatever is left of Lee will likely open into a trough in 36 to 48 hours. The depression is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt steered by the southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern Atlantic. The weak system is expected to turn to the northwest and slow down tonight as it moves toward a trough, and it should continue in that direction until it dissipates. Little change was made to the previous NHC track forecast, and this one remains near the middle of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/2100Z 15.0N 42.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/0600Z 16.0N 43.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 19/1800Z 17.2N 44.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 20/0600Z 18.7N 45.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi |
