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| #903956 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:01 PM 20.Sep.2017) TCPAT5 BULLETIN Hurricane Maria Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 20 2017 ...HURRICANE MARIA MOVING AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO BUT TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE... ...WEATHER CONDITIONS DETERIORATING OVER EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND WILL SOON IN THE TURK AND CAICOS ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 67.9W ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM NE OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Hurricane Warning for Puerto Rico, Culebra, and Vieques has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Puerto Plata * Turks and Caicos Islands and the Southeastern Bahamas A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Dominican Republic west of Puerto Plata to the northern border of the Dominican Republic and Haiti * Dominican Republic west of Cabo Engano to Punta Palenque A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Cabo Engano A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Maria. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the large eye of Hurricane Maria was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 67.9 West. Maria is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Thursday night. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Hurricane Maria will continue to move away from Puerto Rico during the next several hours, and then pass offshore of the northeastern coast of the Dominican Republic early Thursday. Maria should then move near the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas Thursday night and Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, and Maria could regain major hurricane status by Thursday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic recently reported a wind gust to 66 mph (106 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 959 mb (28.32 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Strong gusty winds are still occurring over portions of Puerto Rico, but should continue to gradually subside. Tropical storm conditions are already spreading across the warning areas in the Dominican Republic, and hurricane conditions should start in the Hurricane Warning area soon. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas on Thursday, with hurricane conditions starting Thursday night. STORM SURGE: Water levels in Puerto Rico should begin to recede in the next few hours. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in the hurricane warning area in the Dominican Republic, and 1 to 3 ft elsewhere along the northern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A dangerous storm surge accompanied by large and destructive waves will raise water levels by as much as 9 to 12 feet above normal tide levels within the hurricane warning area of the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. RAINFALL: Maria is expected to produce the following rainfall totals through Saturday: Puerto Rico...20 to 30 inches, isolated 35 inches. U.S. and British Virgin Islands...additional 3 to 5 inches. Northern and eastern Dominican Republic, Turks and Caicos, and the Southeastern Bahamas...8 to 16 inches, isolated 20 inches. Northern Haiti...2 to 4 inches. Rainfall on these islands will continue to cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Maria are still affecting the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. These swells are also affecting the northern coast of Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and should begin in the Southeastern Bahamas during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila |
