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| #904184 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:55 PM 22.Sep.2017) TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A ragged eye has re-appeared during the past several hours, but overall the satellite presentation of Maria has not changed much during the past several hours. The initial intensity is therefore held at 110 kt pending data new data from an ongoing NOAA research mission and an upcoming Air Force Reserve flight. According to various analyses, Maria is under the influence of 20 kt of shear from the southwest, which has apparently eroded the eyewall a bit on that side of the storm. This shear may abate some in about 24 hours, although Maria will also be moving over an area of gradually lowering oceanic heat content. Maria`s intensity is therefore only expected to decrease very gradually during the next 48 hours. After that time, the shear is expected to pick up again, and Maria will be moving over the cold wake left behind by Jose. As a result, a steadier weakening should ensue on days 3 through 5. The NHC intensity forecast remains closest to the ICON intensity consensus and is relatively unchanged from the previous advisory. Maria is turning around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda, and the initial motion estimate is 335/8 kt. The hurricane should turn northward by 36 hours when it moves between the high and a developing cut-off low near the U.S. Gulf coast, and that northward motion, with some east-west wiggles, is likely to continue through day 5. The new track models have shifted significantly westward on this cycle, leaving the interpolated version of the previous forecast (OFCI) by itself on the eastern edge of the guidance suite. Oddly enough, the ECMWF model went from being on the west side of the guidance envelope to the east side, so the westward shift of the new NHC forecast on days 3 through 5 only goes as far as that model and the TVCN consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flooding continues in portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic due to Maria`s heavy rains over the past few days. Continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are affecting the coast of the southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf and life- threatening rip currents for the next several days. 3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas. 4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in the United States, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 23.3N 71.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 24.3N 71.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 25.9N 72.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 27.5N 72.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 28.8N 72.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 30.7N 72.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 32.5N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1800Z 34.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg |
