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| #904373 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:58 AM 24.Sep.2017) TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 AM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Maria has reported 700-mb flight-level winds of 107 kt in the southeastern eyewall, with surface wind estimates from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer between 75-80 kt. The plane also reported that the central pressure has risen to 948 mb inside a 30 n mi wide eye. Based on these data, the initial intensity is nudged downward to 95 kt, and it is possible that this is a bit generous. The initial motion is 355/8, with Maria currently being steered by the flow between the Atlantic subtropical ridge and a cut-off low/trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States. A general motion toward the north or north- northwest should continue for the next 3 days or so, with some decrease in forward speed as a mid-latitude westerly ridge moves through the New England states to the north of the hurricane. After 72 h, the westerlies move south and erode the subtropical ridge, which should allow Maria to recurve to the northeast. The track guidance supports this scenario, although there is some disagreement on the timing and the location of the recurvature. The new forecast track lies a little to the north and west of the previous track in best agreement with the HFIP Corrected consensus model. However, the 72 and 96 h points lie a little to the east of the forecasts of the GFS and ECMWF models. Regardless of where the recurvature occurs, Maria is a large cyclone and the associated tropical storm force winds could eventually reach a portion of the North Carolina coast. Fluctuations in intensity appear likely during the next 24-36 h as Maria remains over warm water and in an environment of light or moderate shear. After that time, the hurricane is likely to encounter the colder water left by Hurricane Jose, which should cause a weakening trend. The new intensity forecast follows the overall trend of the guidance and, except for a downward nudge at 12 and 24 h, is similar to the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Maria`s forecast track continues to be northward, paralleling the U.S. east coast, and it is likely that some direct impacts will occur along portions of the coast next week. Interests along the coast of the Carolinas and the Mid-Atlantic should monitor the progress of Maria, as tropical storm or hurricane watches may be needed for part of this area later today. 2. Swells from Maria are increasing along the coast of the southeastern United States and are expected to reach the Mid-Atlantic coast today. These swells will likely cause dangerous surf and rip currents at the beach through much of next week. For more information, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 27.9N 72.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 28.9N 72.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 30.1N 73.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 31.2N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 26/0600Z 32.1N 73.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 27/0600Z 34.0N 73.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 28/0600Z 35.0N 72.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 29/0600Z 36.0N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven |
