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| #905110 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 PM 29.Sep.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Lee Discussion Number 47 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 Lee is passing over waters near 22 deg C, and convection is quickly disappearing. Although satellite classifications are lower, the initial intensity has been lowered only to 55 kt, since the forward speed of the tropical storm continues to increase and this is likely helping to counter the loss of convection. Regardless of the true intensity, Lee will soon dissipate as it continues accelerating toward the northeast, and the circulation spins down over the next 12 to 24 hours. The NHC forecast conservatively shows Lee as a tropical cyclone for 12 more hours, but it would not be surprising if the system becomes a remnant low as early as tonight before opening into a trough and dissipating on Saturday. As noted above, Lee has continued to accelerate toward the northeast, and the initial motion estimate is now 045/31 kt. The dynamical models are in good agreement that Lee will continue on that heading, with an increase in forward speed for the next 12 hours or so. Almost no change has been made to the official track forecast, and the models remain tightly clustered through the very short forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 42.2N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 45.5N 39.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
