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| #905111 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:52 PM 29.Sep.2017) TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Maria Discussion Number 55 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 29 2017 The cloud pattern has deteriorated and the only convection left is is a curved band of thunderstorms to the east of the center. Latest SSMI microwave data clearly indicate that the low- and mid- level centers are rapidly becoming separated. However, Dvorak estimates still call for an initial intensity of 50 kt at this time. Cold air continues to entrain into the cyclone and Maria has probably already began to acquire extratropical characteristics. Given the cold water along the forecast track, Maria will probably become extratropical in about 36 hours or even sooner. The track is straightforward since the cyclone is well embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. This flow pattern will continue to steer Maria on a general east-northeast track with increasing forward speed until dissipation over the cold waters of the North Atlantic. The NHC forecast incorporates guidance provided by the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 37.8N 57.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 39.0N 52.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 41.5N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 44.0N 38.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1800Z 47.5N 30.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z...ABSORBED $$ Forecaster Avila |
