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| #906720 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:43 PM 11.Oct.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017 Satellite images indicate that Ophelia continues to get better organized. The small eye has become better defined with deeper convection near the center than 6 hours ago. Intensity estimates have continued to rise, and the objective/subjective Dvorak values range from 77 kt to 90 kt. The initial intensity is increased to 75 kt, on the low end of the estimates since Ophelia is over marginal water temperatures and might not be as strong as the satellite suggests. Further strengthening is possible given the fairly low shear environment and marginally warm SSTs, assuming the hurricane moves around enough to not upwell much cooler water. Ophelia should keep hurricane-force winds before it transitions into a strong extratropical low in 3-4 days. The intensity forecast is higher than the previous one, near the model consensus. Almost all of the guidance now show Ophelia as a powerful extratropical low affecting Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain early next week. The hurricane is moving slowly toward the northeast, caught in an area of light steering south of a flat trough in the mid-latitude Atlantic. This trough is forecast to amplify over the central Atlantic late Thursday, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or east-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few days. Little change was made to the forecast track, leaning on the ECMWF side of the consensus, which results in generally a faster track than the previous prediction. Although all of the guidance keep the center offshore of the Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the eastern Azores on Thursday because of the increasing wind radii in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 30.0N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 30.4N 35.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 30.9N 34.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 31.7N 32.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 32.8N 30.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/0000Z 37.0N 22.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 16/0000Z 46.0N 14.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 17/0000Z 56.5N 8.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake |
