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| #907075 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:43 AM 15.Oct.2017) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 ...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.0N 18.3W ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM E OF THE AZORES ABOUT 965 MI...1550 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 18.3 West. Ophelia is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 km/h). A continued northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will approach Ireland on Monday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is expected today and on Monday, but Ophelia is forecast to become a powerful post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches Ireland on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches). Ophelia`s eye recently passed near a drifting buoy that measured a pressure of 970.9 mb (28.67 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to completion by this afternoon. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
