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| #907107 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:49 AM 15.Oct.2017) TCDAT2 Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 1100 AM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 After displaying a distinct eye overnight, recent satellite imagery indicate that the cloud pattern of Ophelia has begun to deteriorate and the eye is no longer apparent. The deep convection is also weakening fast and consequently, Dvorak numbers have begun to decrease while analysts are trying to lower them as much as the technique allows. The best estimate of the initial intensity is 80 kt. Given the cold waters of about 20 deg C, and the strong shear, Ophelia is forecast to gradually weaken and become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Satellite fixes indicate that Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast or 025 degrees at 33 kt, well embedded within the fast flow ahead of a large trough. This pattern is expected to persist, so no significant change in track is anticipated before dissipation. Guidance continues to be in remarkably good agreement and most of the models bring a weakened post-tropical Ophelia to the southern coast of Ireland Monday morning (AST or Miami time). Thereafter, the cyclone will continue over northern Great Britain until dissipation. Strong winds and rains associated with Post-Tropical Ophelia will arrive well in advance of the cyclone center. Residents in those locations should consult products from their local meteorological service for more information on local impacts. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom. Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 41.6N 16.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 46.0N 13.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 16/1200Z 51.5N 9.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 17/0000Z 57.0N 5.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 17/1200Z 60.5N 1.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
