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| #907135 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:46 PM 15.Oct.2017) TCPAT2 BULLETIN Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017 500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017 ...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...44.6N 13.3W ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM NE OF THE AZORES ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann, and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued by the UK Met Office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was located near latitude 44.6 North, longitude 13.3 West. Ophelia is moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will cross over Ireland on Monday, however strong winds and rain will extend far from the center. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Ophelia is expected to be a hurricane-force post-tropical cyclone when it nears the coast of Ireland on Monday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday afternoon. Strong winds will then spread inland across the Ireland and parts of the UK into Monday night. Preparations to protect lives and property should be nearing completion. Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be even greater. RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to 3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100 mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm) or less. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
