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| #9075 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:54 PM 17.Sep.2004) TCMAT1 TROPICAL STORM JEANNE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112004 0300Z SAT SEP 18 2004 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS... MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS...AS WELL AS FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JEANNE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 72.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 72.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 72.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 20.9N 72.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 22.2N 73.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.3N 73.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 26.3N 74.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 29.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 29.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 29.0N 74.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 72.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z FORECASTER JARVINEN |
