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| #90817 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:40 AM 11.Jun.2006) TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012006 1100 AM EDT SUN JUN 11 2006 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS MEASURED A 1400-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 51 KT IN A BAND OF STRONG WINDS WELL TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THERE WAS A 1200 UTC SHIP REPORT OF 33 KT IN THAT SAME AREA. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE SYSTEM IS BEING UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. HAVING SAID THAT...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE STORM IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE. ALTHOUGH THE LOW-CLOUD CENTER IS NOW FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE DEEP CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER. GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THIS SHEAR TO INCREASE...SO NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST SHIPS AND GFDL MODEL PREDICTIONS. THE CYCLONE HAS MOVED A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE WEST THAN EARLIER PREDICTED...HOWEVER A MORE NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION MAY NOW BE DEVELOPING. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AND A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...IF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ABLE TO MAINTAIN AT LEAST A PARTIALLY COHERENT VERTICAL STRUCTURE...IT WOULD RESPOND TO THIS STEERING REGIME BY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...IF ALBERTO BECOMES EVEN MORE SEVERELY SHEARED... IT WOULD MORE LIKELY RESPOND TO SHALLOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW AND REMAIN IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHILE WEAKENING. THIS LATTER SCENARIO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...ALBEIT SLOWER THAN...THE TRACK PREDICTION FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND IS VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL... GFDN...U.K. MET...AND NOGAPS MODEL TRACKS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST LATER TODAY. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 11/1500Z 23.9N 88.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 12/0000Z 24.9N 88.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 12/1200Z 26.0N 87.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 13/0000Z 27.3N 85.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 13/1200Z 28.5N 83.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 14/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 15/1200Z 39.0N 67.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 16/1200Z 46.0N 54.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL |
