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| #909513 (Received by flhurricane at: 9:38 PM 07.Nov.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 1100 PM AST Tue Nov 07 2017 Rina's satellite presentation has acquired some sub-tropical characteristics this evening as it interacts with a mid- to upper-level trough to its west and southwest. The center remains exposed to the south of the primary mass of convection, but the convection has loosely wrapped around the northwestern portion of the circulation which has lead to an increase in overall banding. Recent ASCAT data shows that there has been an overall increase in the size of the wind field and that the maximum winds have increased to around 45 kt. Rina is forecast to remain within an environment of moderate shear and marginal instability during the next 24 hours, however some additional strengthening is possible tonight and Wednesday due to interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough. By early Thursday, Rina will be moving over much colder waters and is forecast to become post-tropical. The cyclone should become a fully extratropical low by late Thursday. Rina continues to move northward or 010/16 kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory. The cyclone should turn north-northeastward around a large high pressure system over the eastern Atlantic by late Wednesday, and then begin to accelerate northeastward on Thursday when it becomes embedded within strong mid-latitude flow. The track guidance remains in fairly good agreement and the NHC forecast is again near the various consensus aids to account for some differences in forward speed among the global models. The cyclone is expected to dissipate along a frontal zone over the far north Atlantic in about 72 hours or less. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 35.4N 48.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 37.8N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 41.2N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 45.7N 43.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 10/0000Z 51.0N 37.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 11/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown |
