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| #909648 (Received by flhurricane at: 3:45 AM 09.Nov.2017) TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Rina Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL192017 500 AM AST Thu Nov 09 2017 It is difficult to depict the presence of a tropical cyclone on satellite imagery. The previous convection near the possible center has become completely detached while the circulation is becoming elongated. In fact, my initial position and intensity are primarily based on continuity. Rina is over very cold waters and a frontal system is rapidly approaching the cyclone, so the NHC forecast calls for Rina to become extratropical during the next 12 hours. Visible images later this morning will probably help to determine the structure of Rina if a cyclone exists by then. Rina or the extratropical low should move fast toward the northeast and then to the east-northeast within the mid-latitude westerly flow. Guidance from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center was use in the NHC forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 44.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 49.0N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 10/0600Z 54.0N 32.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 10/1800Z 55.0N 15.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila |
